Bitcoin Network Activity Slumps To One-Year Low – Is BTC Overpriced?
According to a recent CryptoQuant Research post, Bitcoin (BTC) network activity has slumped to a 12-month low, with CryptoQuant’s Bitcoin Network Activity Index currently at its lowest level since February 2024. Bitcoin Network Activity Drops As Market Consolidates Data from CryptoQuant’s Bitcoin Network Activity Index shows that activity has declined by 15% from its peak in November 2024. As of February 5, the Index stands at 3,760, marking its lowest level in the past year. The decline in network activity is primarily attributed to a sharp drop in the number of transactions on the Bitcoin network. From an all-time high (ATH) of 734,000 transactions in September 2024, the total daily transaction count has fallen by 53% to 346,000. According to CryptoQuant, this downturn in BTC network activity is largely driven by a decline in the use of the Runes Protocol for minting tokens on the blockchain. The post explains: This is evident in the total daily number of OP RETURN codes in Bitcoin transactions, which the RUNES protocol uses to write data about token mints and transfers on the network. When the RUNES protocol emerged in April 2024, the daily number of OP RETURN codes spiked to 802K. However, the number of OP RETURN code has plummeted since, with only 10K OP RETURN codes used. For the uninitiated, The Runes Protocol is a new token standard for BTC, designed to enable fungible token creation directly on the network without requiring off-chain data or complex smart contracts. It aims to be more efficient and scalable than previous Bitcoin tokenization methods like Ordinals and BRC-20. Further evidence of reduced network activity is visible in Bitcoin mempool traffic. The total number of pending transactions waiting to be confirmed in a Bitcoin block has plummeted by 99%, from 287,000 in December 2024 to just 3,000 as of February 5, 2025. Notably, this is the lowest level of mempool traffic since March 2022. Is BTC Overvalued At Current Price? The analysis suggests that, based on network activity, Bitcoin’s fair value currently falls between $48,000 and $95,000. This implies that BTC’s current market price of around $98,000 may be overvalued. However, another CryptoQuant contributor argues that the current Bitcoin price presents a strong buying opportunity for investors looking to dollar-cost average their holdings. Similarly, another analyst suggests that BTC’s recent market performance indicates it is in the distribution phase of the market cycle. Despite short-term concerns, the long-term outlook for BTC remains bullish. A Standard Chartered executive recently predicted that Bitcoin could reach $200,000 by the end of 2025. At press time, BTC trades at $97,914, down 0.1% in the past 24 hours. BTC trades at $97,914 on the daily chart | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView.comFeatured image from Unsplash, Chart from TradingView.com Ash Tiwari Ash is a dedicated crypto researcher and blockchain enthusiast with a passion for diving deep into the evolving world of decentralized technologies. With a background in writing and a natural curiosity for how digital assets are shaping the future, he has immersed himself in various sectors of the cryptocurrency space, including decentralized finance (DeFi), NFTs, and liquidity mining. His journey into crypto started with a desire to fully understand the technology behind it, leading him to explore and engage with these systems firsthand. Ash’s approach to DeFi goes beyond surface-level research as he actively participates in decentralized protocols, testing their functionality to gain a deeper understanding of how they operate. From experimenting with staking mechanisms to exploring liquidity mining strategies, he is hands-on in his exploration, which allows him to provide practical, real-world insights that go far beyond theoretical knowledge. This immersive experience has helped him develop a comprehensive grasp of smart contracts, token governance, and the broader implications of decentralized platforms on the future of finance. In the NFT space, Ash’s interest is driven by the technology’s potential to reshape ownership and creativity in the digital age. He has explored various NFT projects, gaining insights into how these digital assets function within different ecosystems. His focus is on understanding the evolving relationship between creators and communities, as well as the innovative uses of blockchain technology to establish authenticity and provenance in the digital world. Ash’s research in this area often touches on the intersection of culture, technology, and community-driven projects. A key area of his expertise lies in liquidity mining, where he has engaged with various decentralized platforms to understand how liquidity provision contributes to the functionality and security of DeFi ecosystems. Ash’s hands-on involvement has allowed him to analyze the risks, rewards, and broader implications of liquidity pools, giving him a well-rounded perspective on this integral part of DeFi. His understanding of risk management and protocol design allows him to provide insights into how these systems can be navigated effectively, with an emphasis on both opportunity and caution. When it comes to communicating these complex topics, Ash’s writing is grounded in clarity and depth. He excels at breaking down intricate blockchain concepts into easily digestible information for a wide audience. Whether explaining the workings of decentralized exchanges or outlining the future potential of blockchain technology, Ash ensures that his content is accessible to both those new to the space and experienced participants looking for deeper insights. Beyond DeFi and NFTs, Ash explores a wide array of emerging blockchain applications. His research spans areas like cross-chain technologies, decentralized governance, and blockchain’s potential to integrate with traditional finance. He is continuously learning and adapting to the latest developments, ensuring that his insights are both timely and relevant. His interest extends to how these technologies are creating new possibilities for decentralization, transparency, and trust in a variety of industries. Ash’s commitment to engaging with the crypto space firsthand gives him a unique perspective that goes beyond what can be learned from research alone. His practical involvement allows him to stay ahead of the curve, offering readers and enthusiasts a clear and comprehensive understanding of the rapidly evolving world of blockchain. Whether delving into the technical mechanics of DeFi or exploring the cultural impact of NFTs, Ash’s approach is always rooted in curiosity, research, and a desire to make this technology accessible to all. Disclaimer: The information found on NewsBTC is for educational purposes only. It does not represent the opinions of NewsBTC on whether to buy, sell or hold any investments and naturally investing carries risks. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use information provided on this website entirely at your own risk.