Recession In 2025? Crypto Bettors Now See Over 50% Probability After Trump's Sweeping Tariff Rollout (CORRECTED)
Editor’s Note: A typographical error in the headline of this story has been corrected. Cryptocurrency bettors sharply upped the odds of a U.S. recession Thursday following President Donald Trump's worse-than-expected "Liberation Day" tariff rollout. What happened: The odds in favor of the betting contract titled "US recession in 2025?" shot up from 46% to 54% in the last 24 hours on Polymarket. A week ago, the likelihood of this happening was 38%. Over $1 million has already been wagered on the outcome on the Polygon POL/USD-based prediction platform. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the National Bureau of Economic Research declares a recession in the U.S. before January 1, 2026. Alternatively, if the seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP is negative for two consecutive quarters, the condition will be met. Note that Polymarket is not available to U.S. residents due to regulatory hurdles. See Also: Bitcoin Reeling From Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ Shock But These Gold-Backed Coins Are Killing It This Year A similar bet on the federally regulated betting platform Kalshi showed odds at 54%, up from a low of 17% in the first quarter. 🚨Recession odds surge to 54% on KalshiOdds were as low as 17% in Q1— Kalshi (@Kalshi) April 3, 2025 Why It Matters: The stock market got a hammering Thursday after Trump announced sweeping tariffs, including a universal 10% tariff on all imports starting April 5. Bitcoin BTC/USD, however, held steady during the day. Financial services giant JPMorgan placed the risk of a U.S. recession at 40%, up from 30%, largely due to Trump's trade policies. Influential economist Justin Wolfers also chimed in, stating, "The chance of a 2025 recession have risen enormously. (And pointlessly.) Lemme lay down a marker: The chance of a 2025 recession have risen enormously. (And pointlessly.)— Justin Wolfers (@JustinWolfers) April 3, 2025 Image via Shutterstock Read Next: OnlyFans Founder’s Startup And HBAR Foundation Enter Race To Acquire Tiktok To Maintain ‘American Ownership And Governance’ Market News and Data brought to you by Benzinga APIs© 2025 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.