Quite a churn in India-US ties
India needs to strengthen ties with the US more than ever. But with Trump in the Oval Office, that path remains fraught | Photo Credit: Carlos Barria There’s only one thing certain when US President Donald Trump is calling the shots: nothing is certain. Talking about the possibility that the signing of an India-US trade deal was imminent, the White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt firmly declared: “India remains a very strategic ally in the Asia-Pacific. And the President has a very good relationship with Prime Minister Modi and he will continue to have that.”From India’s perspective, that is reassuring. Less than two weeks ago, Trump was sharing a hearty lunch with Pakistan Army chief Field Marshal Asim Munir. India’s top diplomats were aghast at this unprecedented get-together barely five weeks after the May India-Pakistan mini-war. Was it a rebuke to India? Or a reward for Pakistan proposing Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize?What’s more, Munir has emerged as the most belligerent Pakistan army chief in decades — perhaps since Yahya Khan. On Saturday, during a Pakistan Navy passing out parade, telling new recruits that, “What India terms terrorism is, in fact, a legitimate struggle as per international conventions.” He kept up the fiery tirade, adding: “The world must realise that without a just and peaceful resolution to the Kashmir issue, regional peace will forever remain elusive.”Strong language indeed, and Munir’s fourth anti-Indian speech in the last two months. Many speculate Munir is positioning himself for higher office and also looking to cut off all support for former Prime Minister Imran Khan.So here you have a Pakistan army chief primed for confrontation — and an Oval Office occupant arguably as unpredictable as any in recent times. Meanwhile, Russia remains locked in fierce combat with Ukraine and is moving closer to China, which not only buys Russian oil but also invests heavily in the Russian Far East. Ideally, we must turn to the US, but India has slipped down Washington’s priority list for now.External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar is in Washington this week for the Quad foreign ministers’ meeting. But he isn’t expected to take part in the trade talks that have stretched out longer than expected. It was thought that a deal had been stitched up on Friday and that India’s negotiating team would soon return. That, it turns out, was wishful thinking. Leavitt insisted on Monday: “You’ll hear from the President and his trade team very soon when it comes to India.” But with nearly 12,000 items still under discussion, no deal will close until the last ‘t’ is crossed and the last ‘i’ is dotted.Regional blocMeanwhile, Pakistan and China are talking about creating a regional bloc that would replace SAARC (South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation) which has effectively become defunct. SAARC’s last meeting was in 2014 and another meeting scheduled to take place in Pakistan was scrapped after India refused to attend in the wake of the Uri attack.The regional bloc would aim to include almost all the South Asian countries except India — a very glaring omission but one both China and Pakistan would be quite happy with. We will, of course, be invited to join but would we want to be a part of such an organisation where China will be holding the reins?We got a taste of what could go wrong at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) meeting where Rajnath Singh was presented with a draft statement that mentioned the Balochistan train hijacking but not the Pahalgam attack. Singh could be seen quietly putting down his pen and refusing to sign.India needs to strengthen ties with the US more than ever. But with Trump in the Oval Office, that path remains fraught. Trump is above all a dealmaker and even friends emerge bruised, sometimes more so than supposed enemies. He also faces broader challenges: the dollar sits at a four-year low, and his former ally Elon Musk has launched a full-scale war on Trump and the GOP. Musk labelled Trump’s latest spending bill “Insane,” renamed the party the “Porky Pig Party,” and added that it is: “Time for a new political party that actually cares about the people.” He added more specifically: “If this insane spending bill passes, the America Party will be formed the next day.” On an even more ballistic note, he has threatened every member of Congress who campaigned for lower spending and has voted for this bill that, “they will lose their primary next year if it is the last thing I do on this Earth.”India will have to tread cautiously in this confused and tangled minefield, where every move could prove treacherous.Published on July 2, 2025